Transform your opinion into statistically accurate fundamental analysis.

Skidetic statistical models for value investing.

Fritilaria

Crash course | Skidetics + Fritilaria

  • Select a company. Let's choose something historical.
  • Société des Moulins du Bazacle (est. 1070)

  • Use the equalizer to select the expected growth magnitude (%) and growth pattern.
  • Thesis: I think, revenue growth will reach 20% in three years. Afterwards, the growth will gradually decrease.

    Context: This is the moment when you translate your subjective opinion / intuition into a model.

  • Check if the expected revenue is reasonable and aligns with your beliefs.
  • Thesis: I think, company revenues won't exceed 125M€ in year five.

    Context: This is the moment when you validate your opinion.

    125M€

  • Given your opinion, estimate the fair value of the selected company.
  • Thesis: Current stock price is 500$/share. I think, the fair value of this company is 115$/share. Therefore, the selected company is undervalued.

    Context: This is the moment when your opinion becomes a probability distribution.

    Fair value is 115 (€).


    It's easy, isn't it? Try Fritilaria.

    Fritilaria

    Do you have any other questions?

    Check the FAQ.