Transform your opinion into statistically accurate fundamental analysis.

Skidetic statistical models for value investing.

Fritilaria

FAQ

  • What's Skidetica?

    • Skidetica /σχέδιο/ represents the process of converting subjective opinions into Bayesian statistical models.

  • What's Fritilaria?

    • Fritilaria represents the first implementation of skidetics in realm if value investing and by extension finance.

  • What does Fritilaria do?

    • Simply put, Fritilaria calculates fundamental value of public traded companies.

  • How does Fritilaria do it?

    • Fritilaria takes user's subjective opinion and fits it to a predifined Bayesian model.

  • What's a predifined model?

    • Predifined model represents a Bayesian model which is trained on recently published accounting data

  • Why the model is predifined?

    • In order to became a full model, Fritilaria needs your opinion.

  • What's accounting data?

    • Data extracted from publicly available data such as annual and quarter reports published by companies themselves.

  • Do predifined models account for beta, default rate, risk premium and company specific statistics such as cost of debt?

    • Yes. They do. We create models what are based on ranges of values. It means that Fritilaria models take into account almost infinite number of macroeconomic scenarios (Table 1).

    Table 1. Macroeconomic and company specific parameters included in the Fritilaria predifined models (not the extended list)

    Median

    Low

    Upper

    Beta

    1%

    0.5%

    2.5%

    Margin

    25%

    15%

    35%

    Default risk

    10%

    4%

    12%

    Premium rate

    3%

    1%

    6%

    Cost of debt

    10%

    5%

    13%

  • Can you rely on Fritilaria?

    • Fritilaria transforms user's subjective opinion into probabilistic model. Fritilaria mirrors user's outlook on a specific company. If user feels optimistic, then Fritilaria will provide optimistic results. User is in charge of reasoning and final conslusion. That's why Fritilaria is not a financial advisement app.

  • Does Fritilaria employ AI?

    • No.

  • Is Fritilaria a techical analysis tool?

    • No.

  • Does Fritilaria provides ratios such as P/E?

    • No. Fritilaria does not take into account company stock price. Fritilaria is immune to market mood swings, speculative news or any kind short-term volatility.